Gamers8 Riyadh Masters · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Deboostersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Clockwerksignature
Puppey · 10 games
Timbersawoften banned
iceiceice · 8 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
SumaiL · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 7 games
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 7 games
Pucksignature
Nisha · 7 games
Tiny
YapzOr · 7 games
Deboosters
Elder Titan
Malik · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
lil pleb · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Malik · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
lil pleb · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
578 picks · 442 bans
Puck
410 picks · 874 bans
Mars
382 picks · 598 bans
Dragon Knight
362 picks · 474 bans
Snapfire
346 picks · 177 bans
Bane
324 picks · 221 bans
Ember Spirit
299 picks · 577 bans
Dawnbreaker
298 picks · 352 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 40%
Hero pool strength56% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:12
Team Secret 73%Deboosters 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 29:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverCrystallis
Alchemistlil pleb
TimbersawNisha
RazorMalik
Winter WyvernResolut1on
DoomZayac
ClockwerkPuppey
Game 2prediction correct46:11
Team Secret 72%Deboosters 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 43:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ZeusNisha
Medusalil pleb
Monkey KingCrystallis
Keeper of the LightMalik
Dark SeerResolut1on
ChenPuppey
EarthshakerZayac
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 86%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2