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Gamers8 Riyadh Masters · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
iNSaNiA · 13 games
38%
Mars
Marsoften banned
zai · 12 games
42%
Io
Iooften banned
iNSaNiA · 11 games
55%
Razor
Razorsignature
MATUMBAMAN · 11 games
73%
Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 11 games
45%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
iNSaNiA · 10 games
60%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidsignature
MATUMBAMAN · 10 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Boxi · 9 games
56%

Nigma Galaxy

Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
GH · 11 games
55%
Tusk
Tusk
GH · 11 games
55%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
KuroKy · 11 games
27%
Tiny
Tinysignature
KuroKy · 10 games
70%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 9 games
33%
Bane
Bane
KuroKy · 8 games
38%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Miracle- · 8 games
100%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
rmN- · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
579 picks · 443 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
409 picks · 873 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
388 picks · 600 bans
45%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
365 picks · 476 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
346 picks · 177 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
328 picks · 221 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
303 picks · 581 bans
44%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
298 picks · 352 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Team Liquid
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total55% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:16
Team Liquid 47%Nigma Galaxy 53%
The model gave 53% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 34:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingana
49% · 101 game52% · 46 games
BristlebackMiracle-
Bristleback
Tiny
TinymiCKe
51% · 230 games52% · 81 game
Nature's ProphetMinD_ContRoL
Nature's Prophet
Viper
Viperzai
42% · 87 games51% · 156 games
Keeper of the LightSumaiL
Keeper of the Light
Marci
MarciBoxi
46% · 51 game61% · 90 games
AbaddonKuroKy
Abaddon
Jakiro
JakiroiNSaNiA
46% · 52 games48% · 148 games
IoGH
Io
Game 2prediction missed41:29
Team Liquid 47%Nigma Galaxy 53%
The model gave 53% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 45:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernautana
49% · 74 games46% · 53 games
SvenMiracle-
Sven
Lycan
Lycanzai
55% · 95 games50% · 116 games
Void SpiritSumaiL
Void Spirit
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernmiCKe
54% · 158 games54% · 81 game
Death ProphetMinD_ContRoL
Death Prophet
Marci
MarciBoxi
49% · 127 games48% · 73 games
ZeusGH
Zeus
Jakiro
JakiroiNSaNiA
43% · 76 games49% · 207 games
TinyKuroKy
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2