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Gamers8 Riyadh Masters · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Secretwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 24 games
75%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 22 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 19 games
84%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 16 games
88%
Io
Iosignature
Sneyking · 16 games
75%
Visage
Visagesignature
33 · 15 games
80%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Sneyking · 14 games
79%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Sneyking · 14 games
57%

Team Secret

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Puppey · 9 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
iceiceice · 8 games
50%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
SumaiL · 7 games
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 7 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 7 games
43%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 7 games
29%
Puck
Pucksignature
Nisha · 7 games
71%
Tiny
Tiny
YapzOr · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
580 picks · 441 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
409 picks · 871 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
389 picks · 600 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
366 picks · 479 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
346 picks · 177 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
328 picks · 224 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
302 picks · 581 bans
44%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
296 picks · 352 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 50%
Hero pool strength63% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total80% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:44
Tundra Esports 68%Team Secret 32%
The model gave 68% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Secret in 40:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetDaxak
48% · 52 games48% · 150 games
KunkkaNisha
Kunkka
Luna
LunaSkiter
48% · 152 games39% · 84 games
DawnbreakerCrystallis
Dawnbreaker
Zeus
ZeusNine
59% · 74 games54% · 51 game
Dark SeerResolut1on
Dark Seer
Abaddon
AbaddonSneyking
56% · 107 games56% · 70 games
PhoenixPuppey
Phoenix
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritSaksa
55% · 66 games41% · 96 games
ClockwerkZayac
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed5:40
Tundra Esports 70%Team Secret 30%
The model gave 70% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Secret in 26:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautSkiter
59% · 75 games47% · 119 games
BloodseekerCrystallis
Bloodseeker
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNine
49% · 102 games41% · 176 games
DawnbreakerResolut1on
Dawnbreaker
Visage
VisageDaxak
52% · 56 games51% · 83 games
ZeusNisha
Zeus
Tiny
TinySaksa
50% · 226 games47% · 27 games
ChenPuppey
Chen
Phoenix
PhoenixSneyking
56% · 69 games49% · 123 games
Shadow ShamanZayac
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 80%
Series resultTeam Secret 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2