ESL One Malaysia 2022. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
SG e-sportswin 2:1series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
CECoritiba E-Sportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Coritiba E-Sports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
584 picks · 443 bans
Puck
407 picks · 869 bans
Mars
394 picks · 607 bans
Dragon Knight
373 picks · 485 bans
Snapfire
345 picks · 174 bans
Bane
336 picks · 227 bans
Ember Spirit
311 picks · 586 bans
Dawnbreaker
294 picks · 346 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 73%
Hero pool strength50% SG e-sports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Coritiba E-Sports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:13
SG e-sports 44%Coritiba E-Sports 56%
The model gave 56% on Coritiba E-Sports — the game was taken by Coritiba E-Sports in 37:10.
Game 2prediction correct29:19
SG e-sports 44%Coritiba E-Sports 56%
The model gave 56% on Coritiba E-Sports — the game was taken by Coritiba E-Sports in 31:55.
Game 3prediction correct22:45
SG e-sports 44%Coritiba E-Sports 56%
The model gave 56% on Coritiba E-Sports — the game was taken by Coritiba E-Sports in 38:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteCoritiba E-Sports · 56%
Series resultSG e-sports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3