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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 13 · BO3
result vs prediction
ARCREDloss 1:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
EZ KATKAwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ARCRED

Puck
Puckoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 3 games
33%
Tiny
Tiny
Chira JUNIOR · 2 games
0%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
xsvampire · 1 game
0%
Mirana
Mirana
sunset · 1 game
0%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
xsvampire · 1 game
100%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
sunset · 1 game
0%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 1 game
0%
Windranger
Windranger
Chira JUNIOR · 1 game
0%

EZ KATKA

Puck
Puckoften banned
Rvze · 2 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Lukas · 2 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Rvze · 2 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Wuiter · 1 game
0%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Lukas · 1 game
0%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Wuiter · 1 game
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Wuiter · 1 game
0%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Wuiter · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
587 picks · 444 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
406 picks · 869 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
393 picks · 615 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
379 picks · 486 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
345 picks · 174 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
341 picks · 230 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
313 picks · 591 bans
45%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
294 picks · 344 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 43%
Hero pool strength55% EZ KATKA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% ARCRED
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:18
ARCRED 56%EZ KATKA 44%
The model gave 56% on ARCRED — the game was taken by ARCRED in 36:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider
BatriderChira JUNIOR
49% · 68 games53% · 30 games
Phantom AssassinLukas
Phantom Assassin
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magexsvampire
56% · 79 games49% · 72 games
Ember SpiritRvze
Ember Spirit
44% · 28 games
ViperWuiter
Viper
40% · 17 games
Nyx AssassinLefitan
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction missed50:52
ARCRED 54%EZ KATKA 46%
The model gave 54% on ARCRED — the game was taken by EZ KATKA in 1:00:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerChira JUNIOR
48% · 130 games55% · 60 games
RazorLukas
Razor
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magexsvampire
42% · 103 games57% · 115 games
PuckRvze
Puck
47% · 11 games
Dark SeerWuiter
Dark Seer
55% · 47 games
DoomLefitan
Doom
Game 3prediction missed22:37
ARCRED 58%EZ KATKA 42%
The model gave 58% on ARCRED — the game was taken by EZ KATKA in 33:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider
BatriderChira JUNIOR
50% · 121 game45% · 72 games
TerrorbladeLukas
Terrorblade
Monkey King
Monkey Kingxsvampire
56% · 312 games53% · 105 games
Ember SpiritRvze
Ember Spirit
47% · 210 games
MarsWuiter
Mars
43% · 46 games
Skywrath MageLefitan
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteARCRED · 60%
Series resultEZ KATKA 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3