Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 13 · BO3
result vs predictionAArcred.intloss 0:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
11Monkeyzwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Arcred.int
Bristlebackoften banned
Nande · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
hina · 2 games
Tiny
hina · 2 games
Clockwerk
sunset · 1 game
Juggernautoften banned
Nande · 1 game
Mirana
sunset · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
sunset · 1 game
Phoenix
sunset · 1 game
11Monkeyz
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
585 picks · 448 bans
Puck
406 picks · 869 bans
Mars
399 picks · 615 bans
Dragon Knight
381 picks · 487 bans
Snapfire
347 picks · 174 bans
Bane
346 picks · 230 bans
Ember Spirit
314 picks · 594 bans
Dawnbreaker
294 picks · 343 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 48%
Hero pool strength54% 11Monkeyz
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% 11Monkeyz
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:27
Arcred.int 36%11Monkeyz 64%
The model gave 64% on 11Monkeyz — the game was taken by 11Monkeyz in 31:01.
Game 2prediction correct16:24
Arcred.int 36%11Monkeyz 64%
The model gave 64% on 11Monkeyz — the game was taken by 11Monkeyz in 26:44.
Model check result
Model favorite11Monkeyz · 64%
Series result11Monkeyz 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2