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ESL One Malaysia 2022. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniusesloss 0:2
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TNC Predatorwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Army Geniuses

Tiny
Tiny
NARMAN · 13 games
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Varizh · 10 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Azur4 · 8 games
63%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 8 games
38%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Azur4 · 6 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
db- · 6 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
woMy · 6 games
83%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
woMy · 6 games
33%

TNC Predator

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Bombi · 13 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
xiaoyu154 · 13 games
69%
Tiny
Tinysignature
YoungGodLevi · 10 games
60%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Roddgeee · 10 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
xsilearn · 9 games
44%
Mars
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 9 games
56%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
xiaoyu154 · 9 games
78%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
cml · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
587 picks · 448 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
407 picks · 865 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
398 picks · 618 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
382 picks · 488 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
349 picks · 232 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
346 picks · 174 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
316 picks · 593 bans
46%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
292 picks · 341 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 42%
Hero pool strength55% TNC Predator
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total61% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:29
Army Geniuses 57%TNC Predator 43%
The model gave 57% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 44:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingdb-
45% · 39 games51% · 35 games
Anti-MageKarma丶
Anti-Mage
Pangolier
PangolierwoMy
52% · 70 games49% · 111 games
EnchantressBok
Enchantress
Hoodwink
HoodwinkNARMAN
51% · 96 games51% · 89 games
Skywrath Magecml
Skywrath Mage
Marci
MarciVarizh
51% · 30 games
Game 2prediction missed23:34
Army Geniuses 55%TNC Predator 45%
The model gave 55% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 45:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirendb-
48% · 11 games47% · 33 games
AlchemistKarma丶
Alchemist
Mars
MarswoMy
43% · 175 games42% · 231 game
Grimstrokecml
Grimstroke
Rubick
RubickNARMAN
59% · 89 games55% · 69 games
EnigmaBok
Enigma
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorVarizh
59% · 58 games
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 61%
Series resultTNC Predator 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2