ESL One Malaysia 2022. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:1series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Lilgunloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 9 games
Banesignature
Hyde · 8 games
Death Prophetsignature
kpii · 7 games
Marssignature
kpii · 7 games
Medusasignature
23savage · 7 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 6 games
Faceless Voidsignature
23savage · 6 games
Grimstrokesignature
Q · 6 games
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
587 picks · 448 bans
Puck
407 picks · 865 bans
Mars
398 picks · 618 bans
Dragon Knight
382 picks · 488 bans
Bane
349 picks · 232 bans
Snapfire
346 picks · 174 bans
Ember Spirit
316 picks · 593 bans
Dawnbreaker
292 picks · 341 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 38%
Hero pool strength62% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total74% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 2prediction missed14:30
Talon Esports 74%Lilgun 26%
The model gave 74% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Lilgun in 31:37.
Game 3prediction correct30:8
Talon Esports 74%Lilgun 26%
The model gave 74% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 32:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 74%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2