Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 13 · BO3
result vs prediction
MooN teamloss 1:2series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 1:2
EZ KATKAwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MooN team
No games played over 6 months.
EZ KATKA
Alchemistoften banned
Wuiter · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
Lukas · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Wuiter · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lukas · 1 game
Marcioften banned
Lefitan · 1 game
Necrophosoften banned
Wuiter · 1 game
Puckoften banned
Rvze · 1 game
Pudge
Rvze · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
590 picks · 449 bans
Puck
406 picks · 866 bans
Mars
399 picks · 620 bans
Dragon Knight
383 picks · 490 bans
Bane
350 picks · 233 bans
Snapfire
345 picks · 174 bans
Ember Spirit
316 picks · 594 bans
Chaos Knight
292 picks · 649 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 33%
Hero pool strength55% MooN team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% MooN team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:22
MooN team 83%EZ KATKA 17%
The model gave 83% on MooN team — the game was taken by EZ KATKA in 21:31.
Game 2prediction correct45:30
MooN team 83%EZ KATKA 17%
The model gave 83% on MooN team — the game was taken by MooN team in 50:24.
Game 3prediction missed14:32
MooN team 83%EZ KATKA 17%
The model gave 83% on MooN team — the game was taken by EZ KATKA in 34:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteMooN team · 83%
Series resultEZ KATKA 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3