Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 13 · BO3
result vs prediction
ARCREDloss 1:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PSG Questwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ARCRED
Puckoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 2 games
Tiny
Chira JUNIOR · 2 games
Mirana
sunset · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
sunset · 1 game
PSG Quest
Snapfiresignature
OmaR · 16 games
Pucksignature
No!ob · 14 games
Earth Spirit
OmaR · 12 games
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 12 games
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 11 games
Death Prophetoften banned
No!ob · 9 games
Hoodwink
OmaR · 9 games
Tinysignature
OmaR · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
587 picks · 450 bans
Puck
405 picks · 863 bans
Mars
401 picks · 619 bans
Dragon Knight
383 picks · 492 bans
Bane
350 picks · 233 bans
Snapfire
343 picks · 172 bans
Ember Spirit
317 picks · 594 bans
Chaos Knight
293 picks · 647 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 53%
Hero pool strength64% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:6
ARCRED 43%PSG Quest 57%
The model gave 57% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by ARCRED in 25:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckChira JUNIOR
TinyNo!ob
Monkey Kingxsvampire
Nyx AssassinOmaR
59% · 230 games
BaneEixn
Game 2prediction correct31:33
ARCRED 43%PSG Quest 57%
The model gave 57% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 40:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerChira JUNIOR
PangolierNo!ob
Zeusxsvampire
TinyOmaR
51% · 27 games
IoEixn
Game 3prediction correct9:29
ARCRED 44%PSG Quest 56%
The model gave 56% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 25:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void SpiritChira JUNIOR
RazorNo!ob
Earthshakerxsvampire
HoodwinkOmaR
56% · 66 games
IoEixn
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 59%
Series resultPSG Quest 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3