Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Arkosh Gamingloss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
simply TOOBASEDwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Arkosh Gaming
Puckoften banned
Dendi · 1 game
Rubick
Dendi · 1 game
Tiny
Dendi · 1 game
simply TOOBASED
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
593 picks · 454 bans
Puck
407 picks · 865 bans
Mars
404 picks · 627 bans
Dragon Knight
386 picks · 499 bans
Bane
358 picks · 237 bans
Snapfire
342 picks · 171 bans
Ember Spirit
322 picks · 600 bans
Chaos Knight
297 picks · 648 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 33%
Hero pool strength51% simply TOOBASED
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total50% simply TOOBASED
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:42
Arkosh Gaming 50%simply TOOBASED 50%
The model gave 50% on simply TOOBASED — the game was taken by simply TOOBASED in 33:26.
Game 2prediction correct14:35
Arkosh Gaming 50%simply TOOBASED 50%
The model gave 50% on simply TOOBASED — the game was taken by simply TOOBASED in 26:21.
Model check result
Model favoritesimply TOOBASED · 50%
Series resultsimply TOOBASED 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2