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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 13 · BO3
result vs prediction
HFloss 1:2
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
IVYwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HF

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Cloud · 16 games
63%
Mirana
Miranasignature
ArrOw · 14 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 13 games
54%
Puck
Pucksignature
hAze · 13 games
62%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 12 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Kaori · 11 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 10 games
60%
Io
Iosignature
Kaori · 10 games
80%

IVY

Tiny
Tinysignature
Mo13ei · 20 games
60%
Mirana
Mirana
Qupe · 12 games
50%
Bane
Bane
jmn- · 10 games
30%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Qupe · 10 games
40%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Max · 10 games
50%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
jmn- · 9 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Max · 8 games
50%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Lowskill · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
593 picks · 451 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
407 picks · 863 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
404 picks · 627 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
386 picks · 498 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
358 picks · 236 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
339 picks · 171 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
322 picks · 600 bans
47%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
297 picks · 648 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 67%
Hero pool strength55% HF
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% HF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:25
HF 62%IVY 38%
The model gave 62% on HF — the game was taken by HF in 30:15.
Game 2prediction missed22:49
HF 62%IVY 38%
The model gave 62% on HF — the game was taken by IVY in 35:29.
Game 3prediction missed29:36
HF 62%IVY 38%
The model gave 62% on HF — the game was taken by IVY in 47:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteHF · 62%
Series resultIVY 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3