Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 13 · BO3
result vs predictionAArcred.intloss 0:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
GGUBINA13win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Arcred.int
Dragon Knightoften banned
hina · 2 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Nande · 1 game
Mirana
sunset · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
sunset · 1 game
Phoenix
sunset · 1 game
Templar Assassinoften banned
Nande · 1 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nande · 1 game
Void Spiritoften banned
hina · 1 game
GUBINA13
Arc Warden
Alberkaaa · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
Alberkaaa · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
HappyDyurara · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Antares · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Antares · 1 game
Winter Wyvern
HappyDyurara · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
592 picks · 452 bans
Puck
407 picks · 862 bans
Mars
405 picks · 627 bans
Dragon Knight
386 picks · 497 bans
Bane
358 picks · 236 bans
Snapfire
341 picks · 171 bans
Ember Spirit
322 picks · 600 bans
Chaos Knight
298 picks · 649 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Arcred.int
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% GUBINA13
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:50
Arcred.int 49%GUBINA13 51%
The model gave 51% on GUBINA13 — the game was taken by GUBINA13 in 47:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackNande
Phantom AssassinAlberkaaa
Tinyhina
EnchantressYuragi
Zeussunset
Monkey KingAntares
57% · 51 game
PugnaHappyDyurara
Game 2prediction correct23:41
Arcred.int 49%GUBINA13 51%
The model gave 51% on GUBINA13 — the game was taken by GUBINA13 in 31:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautNande
GyrocopterAlberkaaa
Tinyhina
Skywrath MageAntares
Clockwerksunset
PhoenixHappyDyurara
Model check result
Model favoriteGUBINA13 · 52%
Series resultGUBINA13 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2