Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 1:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Banesignature
Fantasy · 24 games
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 19 games
Monkey Kingsignature
BoBoKa · 18 games
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 17 games
Snapfire
Fantasy · 17 games
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 16 games
Tinysignature
Monet · 16 games
Iosignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
Xtreme Gaming
Templar Assassinsignature
lou · 15 games
Death Prophetsignature
Paparazi · 12 games
Puckoften banned
Paparazi · 12 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pyw · 11 games
Dragon Knightsignature
ELeVeN · 10 games
Weaversignature
Pyw · 10 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 9 games
Snapfiresignature
Dy · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
591 picks · 448 bans
Mars
406 picks · 627 bans
Puck
405 picks · 860 bans
Dragon Knight
386 picks · 497 bans
Bane
359 picks · 238 bans
Snapfire
340 picks · 170 bans
Ember Spirit
323 picks · 599 bans
Chaos Knight
297 picks · 649 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 56%
Hero pool strength54% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total55% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:11
Team Aster 53%Xtreme Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 36:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidMonet
Monkey Kinglou
VisageXxs
RazorPaparazi
PudgeOri
UnderlordELeVeN
TinyBoBoKa
PhoenixPyw
DazzleFantasy
LionDy
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 55%
Series resultTeam Aster 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1