Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eatersloss 0:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:1
PARI PARNIwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rune Eaters
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 6 games
Tinysignature
TA2000 · 6 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
ArrOw · 5 games
Mirana
ArrOw · 5 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
hAze · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
PARI PARNI
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
589 picks · 450 bans
Mars
409 picks · 629 bans
Puck
406 picks · 859 bans
Dragon Knight
389 picks · 497 bans
Bane
361 picks · 239 bans
Snapfire
340 picks · 170 bans
Ember Spirit
324 picks · 602 bans
Pangolier
302 picks · 524 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 25%
Hero pool strength50% PARI PARNI
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Rune Eaters 56%PARI PARNI 44%
The model gave 56% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by PARI PARNI.
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 56%
Series resultPARI PARNI 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1