Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO1
result vs prediction
Rune Eatersloss 0:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Mind Gameswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rune Eaters
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 6 games
Tinysignature
TA2000 · 6 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
ArrOw · 5 games
Mirana
ArrOw · 5 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
hAze · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
Mind Games
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
589 picks · 450 bans
Mars
410 picks · 629 bans
Puck
406 picks · 860 bans
Dragon Knight
391 picks · 497 bans
Bane
363 picks · 240 bans
Snapfire
339 picks · 170 bans
Ember Spirit
325 picks · 604 bans
Pangolier
303 picks · 525 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% Mind Games
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Mind Games
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:17
Rune Eaters 45%Mind Games 55%
The model gave 55% on Mind Games — the game was taken by Mind Games in 44:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteMind Games · 55%
Series resultMind Games 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1