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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Natus Vincerewin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 17 games
65%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yatoro · 11 games
64%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 11 games
64%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Mira · 10 games
70%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Collapse · 10 games
70%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 10 games
70%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 9 games
89%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 9 games
67%

Natus Vincere

Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
swedenstrong · 9 games
44%
Puck
Puckoften banned
No[o]ne · 9 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Solo · 7 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Solo · 7 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
laise · 6 games
50%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
V-Tune · 6 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 6 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Solo · 5 games
20%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
589 picks · 450 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
410 picks · 630 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
405 picks · 860 bans
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
391 picks · 497 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
363 picks · 243 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
339 picks · 169 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
325 picks · 606 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
302 picks · 525 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 59%
Hero pool strength59% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total57% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Team Spirit 57%Natus Vincere 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Natus Vincere.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 57%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1