?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:1
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Virtus.prowin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 17 games
65%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yatoro · 11 games
64%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 11 games
64%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Mira · 10 games
70%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Collapse · 10 games
70%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 10 games
70%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 9 games
89%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 9 games
67%

Virtus.pro

Bane
Banesignature
Xakoda · 15 games
73%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
DM · 14 games
64%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
yamich · 14 games
57%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
gpK~ · 13 games
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
DM · 12 games
83%
Marci
Marcisignature
yamich · 11 games
82%
Tiny
Tinysignature
yamich · 11 games
73%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Xakoda · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
589 picks · 452 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
412 picks · 634 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
406 picks · 860 bans
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
392 picks · 499 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
364 picks · 245 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
339 picks · 168 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
325 picks · 607 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
303 picks · 529 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 68%
Hero pool strength50% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total78% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Spirit 22%Virtus.pro 78%
The model gave 78% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 78%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1