Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 13 · BO3
result vs prediction
HFwin 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GGUBINA13loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HF
Sand Kingsignature
Cloud · 16 games
Miranasignature
ArrOw · 14 games
Pucksignature
hAze · 13 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 12 games
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 12 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Kaori · 11 games
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 10 games
Iosignature
Kaori · 10 games
GUBINA13
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
593 picks · 452 bans
Mars
414 picks · 637 bans
Puck
407 picks · 861 bans
Dragon Knight
393 picks · 503 bans
Bane
367 picks · 248 bans
Snapfire
339 picks · 168 bans
Ember Spirit
328 picks · 608 bans
Pangolier
305 picks · 531 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% HF
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% HF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct52:29
HF 65%GUBINA13 35%
The model gave 65% on HF — the game was taken by HF in 45:26.
Game 2prediction correct63:28
HF 65%GUBINA13 35%
The model gave 65% on HF — the game was taken by HF in 36:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteHF · 65%
Series resultHF 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2