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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO1
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 1:0
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Bane
Banesignature
Xakoda · 15 games
73%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
DM · 14 games
64%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
yamich · 14 games
57%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
gpK~ · 13 games
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
DM · 12 games
83%
Marci
Marcisignature
yamich · 11 games
82%
Tiny
Tinysignature
yamich · 10 games
70%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Xakoda · 9 games
67%

Natus Vincere

Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
swedenstrong · 9 games
44%
Puck
Pucksignature
No[o]ne · 8 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Solo · 7 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Solo · 7 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
laise · 6 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 6 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Solo · 5 games
20%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
No[o]ne · 5 games
20%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
592 picks · 452 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
414 picks · 637 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
406 picks · 861 bans
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
393 picks · 503 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
367 picks · 248 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
339 picks · 168 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
328 picks · 608 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
305 picks · 531 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 63%
Hero pool strength57% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total83% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:28
Virtus.pro 71%Natus Vincere 29%
The model gave 71% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 42:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautRAMZES666
57% · 97 games51% · 84 games
LifestealerV-Tune
Lifestealer
Tiny
TinygpK~
48% · 323 games37% · 134 games
Dawnbreakerlaise
Dawnbreaker
Doom
DoomDM
59% · 97 games49% · 244 games
PuckNo[o]ne
Puck
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mageyamich
48% · 104 games53% · 100 games
Marciswedenstrong
Marci
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiXakoda
54% · 66 games47% · 125 games
Winter WyvernSolo
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 83%
Series resultVirtus.pro 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1