5RATFORCESTAFF vs Felt — prediction DPC2S—СА 3 · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO1

result vs prediction

5RATFORCESTAFFwin 1:0

series probability

55%45%

probability at match start · final 1:0

Feltloss 0:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

5RATFORCESTAFF

Abaddonsignature

albinozebra · 9 games

78%

Death Prophetsignature

Lil_Nick · 7 games

71%

Pangoliersignature

red2 · 7 games

100%

Tiny

Giant · 7 games

29%

Keeper of the Lightsignature

Giant · 6 games

83%

Hoodwink

Giant · 5 games

80%

Juggernautoften banned

dnm · 5 games

20%

Puckoften banned

Speeed · 5 games

80%

Felt

Weaveroften banned

Zore · 12 games

42%

Tinysignature

AfrOmoush · 9 games

67%

Axe

Zore · 7 games

43%

Templar Assassinoften banned

solji · 6 games

50%

Dawnbreakeroften banned

Zore · 5 games

20%

Huskaroften banned

Yellow Flash · 5 games

80%

Kunkkaoften banned

solji · 4 games

Medusaoften banned

solji · 4 games

75%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Tiny

596 picks · 457 bans

51%

Mars

418 picks · 647 bans

46%

Puck

408 picks · 867 bans

55%

Dragon Knight

394 picks · 515 bans

50%

Bane

371 picks · 250 bans

57%

Snapfire

340 picks · 168 bans

49%

Ember Spirit

332 picks · 620 bans

47%

Pangolier

309 picks · 541 bans

52%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)38% vs 33%

Hero pool strength59% 5RATFORCESTAFF

Head-to-head2 – 1

Model total55% 5RATFORCESTAFF

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct42:10

5RATFORCESTAFF 51%Felt 49%

The model gave 51% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 33:45.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo