Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
beastcoastloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Thunder Awaken
Marssignature
DarkMago · 22 games
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 21 game
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 19 games
Snapfiresignature
Sacred · 19 games
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 16 games
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 15 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Pakazs · 13 games
Weaversignature
Sacred · 12 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
595 picks · 456 bans
Mars
419 picks · 646 bans
Puck
407 picks · 865 bans
Dragon Knight
393 picks · 514 bans
Bane
371 picks · 250 bans
Snapfire
340 picks · 167 bans
Ember Spirit
332 picks · 619 bans
Pangolier
309 picks · 539 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 45%
Hero pool strength67% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total55% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:17
Thunder Awaken 55%beastcoast 45%
The model gave 55% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 29:59.
Game 2prediction correct23:4
Thunder Awaken 55%beastcoast 45%
The model gave 55% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 15:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 55%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2