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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO1
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 1:0
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:0
nounsloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Wij · 7 games
71%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
Hyko · 7 games
86%
Bane
Bane
Wij · 5 games
100%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Berna · 5 games
80%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Hyko · 5 games
60%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Berna · 4 games
25%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Wij · 4 games
25%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Parker · 4 games
75%

nouns

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Moo · 10 games
90%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Husky · 8 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
ZfreeK · 8 games
75%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
Husky · 7 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Moo · 6 games
67%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Husky · 6 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Gunnar · 5 games
80%
Zeus
Zeus
ZfreeK · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
591 picks · 457 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
418 picks · 643 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
407 picks · 860 bans
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
391 picks · 512 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
370 picks · 250 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
339 picks · 167 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
331 picks · 620 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
310 picks · 535 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 73%
Hero pool strength53% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:31
Evil Geniuses 54%nouns 46%
The model gave 54% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by nouns in 35:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 54%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 1