Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydraloss 0:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
X3win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Puckoften banned
Askold · 27 games
Hoodwink
Muka · 21 game
Invokersignature
Askold · 18 games
Jakirosignature
Zayac · 16 games
Bane
Muka · 15 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 15 games
Pugnasignature
Zayac · 15 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Kami · 14 games
X3
Bane
antoha · 22 games
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 19 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
NattyNarwhal · 12 games
Pugnaoften banned
smN · 12 games
Treant Protectorsignature
smN · 12 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Shergarat · 11 games
Tiny
NattyNarwhal · 11 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Mastery · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
590 picks · 456 bans
Mars
418 picks · 643 bans
Puck
407 picks · 858 bans
Dragon Knight
391 picks · 512 bans
Bane
370 picks · 250 bans
Snapfire
339 picks · 167 bans
Ember Spirit
331 picks · 618 bans
Pangolier
310 picks · 533 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% Hydra
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total52% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:34
Hydra 51%X3 49%
The model gave 51% on Hydra — the game was taken by X3 in 54:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Winter WyvernAskold
Void SpiritNattyNarwhal
Marcikickeed
Monkey Kingnesfeer
62% · 26 games
EnigmaShergarat
47% · 86 games
Dawnbreakervelheor
30% · 33 games
VipersmN
Game 2prediction correct23:38
Hydra 47%X3 53%
The model gave 53% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 33:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void SpiritAskold
Weavernesfeer
Silencerkickeed
WindrangerNattyNarwhal
68% · 17 games
EnigmaShergarat
54% · 84 games
Tinyvelheor
45% · 46 games
DawnbreakersmN
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 52%
Series resultX3 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2