Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Mind Gamesloss 0:2series probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.prowin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Mind Games
No games played over 6 months.
Virtus.pro
Banesignature
Xakoda · 14 games
Dragon Knightsignature
DM · 14 games
Shadow Shaman
yamich · 14 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
gpK~ · 12 games
Beastmastersignature
DM · 11 games
Marcisignature
yamich · 10 games
Tinysignature
yamich · 10 games
Dazzlesignature
Xakoda · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
589 picks · 458 bans
Mars
420 picks · 645 bans
Puck
407 picks · 857 bans
Dragon Knight
391 picks · 513 bans
Bane
370 picks · 250 bans
Snapfire
338 picks · 167 bans
Ember Spirit
333 picks · 618 bans
Pangolier
311 picks · 535 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 65%
Hero pool strength58% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total86% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:30
Mind Games 14%Virtus.pro 86%
The model gave 86% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 36:48.
Game 2prediction correct11:28
Mind Games 14%Virtus.pro 86%
The model gave 86% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 28:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 86%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2