Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
One Moveloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
swedenstrong · 8 games
Enchantresssignature
Solo · 7 games
Puckoften banned
No[o]ne · 7 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
laise · 6 games
Abaddonoften banned
Solo · 5 games
Clockwerk
Solo · 5 games
Lifestealeroften banned
V-Tune · 5 games
Pugnaoften banned
swedenstrong · 5 games
One Move
Banesignature
Panto · 31 game
Miranasignature
sayuw · 30 games
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 28 games
Storm Spiritsignature
mellojul · 28 games
Pangolieroften banned
mellojul · 27 games
Marssignature
AfterLife · 20 games
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 19 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
586 picks · 459 bans
Mars
422 picks · 646 bans
Puck
406 picks · 858 bans
Dragon Knight
391 picks · 515 bans
Bane
373 picks · 251 bans
Snapfire
338 picks · 167 bans
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 618 bans
Pangolier
313 picks · 535 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 53%
Hero pool strength61% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:25
Natus Vincere 49%One Move 51%
The model gave 51% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 35:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageV-Tune
UrsaSmiling Knight
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
BeastmasterAfterLife
Timbersawlaise
Batridermellojul
Windrangerswedenstrong
Tinysayuw
Winter WyvernSolo
ZeusPanto
Game 2prediction missed36:14
Natus Vincere 49%One Move 51%
The model gave 51% on One Move — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 36:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetV-Tune
Faceless VoidSmiling Knight
Keeper of the LightNo[o]ne
UnderlordAfterLife
Dawnbreakerlaise
Sand Kingmellojul
ClockwerkSolo
Miranasayuw
Tinyswedenstrong
EnchantressPanto
Game 3prediction correct42:22
Natus Vincere 51%One Move 49%
The model gave 51% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 44:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerV-Tune
LycanAfterLife
Necrophoslaise
PudgeSmiling Knight
PuckNo[o]ne
Tinymellojul
Clockwerkswedenstrong
Weaversayuw
Winter WyvernSolo
ZeusPanto
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 55%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3