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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Asterloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Bane
Bane
y` · 13 games
54%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
NothingToSay · 11 games
55%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
y` · 11 games
82%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
y` · 10 games
80%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Ame · 10 games
70%
Doom
Doomsignature
Faith_bian · 9 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 9 games
89%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Faith_bian · 8 games
63%

Team Aster

Bane
Banesignature
Fantasy · 24 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 19 games
63%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 17 games
65%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
BoBoKa · 17 games
65%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Fantasy · 17 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 16 games
44%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Monet · 14 games
71%
Io
Iosignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
85%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
584 picks · 460 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
422 picks · 646 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
404 picks · 861 bans
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
391 picks · 516 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
373 picks · 251 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
338 picks · 166 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 618 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
314 picks · 537 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total54% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:8
LGD Gaming 49%Team Aster 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Aster — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 24:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenAme
51% · 34 games44% · 120 games
Chaos KnightMonet
Chaos Knight
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
50% · 275 games49% · 244 games
PuckOri
Puck
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerFaith_bian
47% · 185 games52% · 69 games
VisageXxs
Visage
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanXinQ
52% · 165 games51% · 298 games
TinyBoBoKa
Tiny
Enchantress
Enchantressy`
49% · 163 games56% · 91 game
Treant ProtectorFantasy
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction missed23:6
LGD Gaming 50%Team Aster 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Aster — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 24:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackAme
48% · 43 games51% · 145 games
MorphlingMonet
Morphling
Razor
RazorFaith_bian
44% · 184 games50% · 132 games
TimbersawXxs
Timbersaw
Tiny
TinyNothingToSay
51% · 309 games50% · 245 games
PuckOri
Puck
Marci
MarciXinQ
52% · 100 games51% · 254 games
Monkey KingBoBoKa
Monkey King
Io
Ioy`
47% · 227 games60% · 87 games
PhoenixFantasy
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 54%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2