Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Wolf Teamloss 0:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SG e-sportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wolf Team
No games played over 6 months.
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
584 picks · 458 bans
Mars
421 picks · 645 bans
Puck
404 picks · 859 bans
Dragon Knight
391 picks · 516 bans
Bane
373 picks · 251 bans
Snapfire
338 picks · 166 bans
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 618 bans
Pangolier
314 picks · 537 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 45%
Hero pool strength50% Wolf Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% Wolf Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:5
Wolf Team 52%SG e-sports 48%
The model gave 52% on Wolf Team — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 25:08.
Game 2prediction missed39:25
Wolf Team 52%SG e-sports 48%
The model gave 52% on Wolf Team — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 37:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteWolf Team · 52%
Series resultSG e-sports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2