Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Ravenswin 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Mad Kingsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ravens
Enchantressoften banned
Cara · 4 games
Invokeroften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 4 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 4 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
DaaD- · 4 games
Tiny
d1smar · 4 games
Bane
Cara · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Benjaz · 3 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Benjaz · 3 games
Mad Kings
Beastmastersignature
Frank · 11 games
Ogre Magisignature
Mjz · 11 games
Tinysignature
sl4d1n- · 10 games
Bloodseekersignature
Mnz · 9 games
Death Prophetsignature
ArzenT · 8 games
Marssignature
Frank · 8 games
Visageoften banned
drakeel · 8 games
Weaversignature
MoOz · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
583 picks · 457 bans
Mars
421 picks · 647 bans
Puck
402 picks · 859 bans
Dragon Knight
393 picks · 516 bans
Bane
375 picks · 250 bans
Snapfire
337 picks · 166 bans
Ember Spirit
335 picks · 619 bans
Pangolier
315 picks · 538 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% Mad Kings
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% Ravens
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:21
Ravens 54%Mad Kings 46%
The model gave 54% on Ravens — the game was taken by Ravens in 45:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaDaaD-
BloodseekerAdrx
ZeusÑengoflow KELOKE
RazorArzenT
BeastmasterBenjaz
EnchantressCara
Nyx Assassind1smar
Game 2prediction correct42:23
Ravens 52%Mad Kings 48%
The model gave 52% on Ravens — the game was taken by Ravens in 42:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingDaaD-
Templar AssassinAdrx
PuckÑengoflow KELOKE
EnigmaArzenT
VisageBenjaz
Doomd1smar
MarciCara
Model check result
Model favoriteRavens · 56%
Series resultRavens 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2