Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Entitywin 2:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Secretloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Team Secret
Chaos Knightoften banned
SumaiL · 7 games
Clockwerksignature
Puppey · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 7 games
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 7 games
Iooften banned
Puppey · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 7 games
Doomoften banned
Zayac · 6 games
Pucksignature
Nisha · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
580 picks · 458 bans
Mars
423 picks · 647 bans
Puck
399 picks · 857 bans
Dragon Knight
394 picks · 517 bans
Bane
372 picks · 250 bans
Snapfire
338 picks · 166 bans
Ember Spirit
335 picks · 620 bans
Pangolier
314 picks · 538 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Team Secret
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total55% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:17
Entity 45%Team Secret 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 52:16.
Game 2prediction correct41:25
Entity 45%Team Secret 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 48:15.
Game 3prediction correct37:16
Entity 45%Team Secret 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 47:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 55%
Series resultEntity 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3