Arcred.int vs IVY — prediction WDCLS 2 13 · Dota 2

arrow_backBack to match

Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 13 · BO3

result vs prediction

AArcred.intloss 1:2

series probability

46%54%

probability at match start · final 1:2

IVYwin 2:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Arcred.int

No games played over 6 months.

IVY

Tiny

Mo13ei · 19 games

58%

Mirana

Qupe · 11 games

45%

Bane

jmn- · 10 games

30%

Marsoften banned

Max · 10 games

50%

Clockwerk

Qupe · 9 games

44%

Weaveroften banned

jmn- · 9 games

33%

Dragon Knightoften banned

Max · 8 games

50%

Medusasignature

Lowskill · 8 games

63%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Tiny

583 picks · 452 bans

51%

Mars

425 picks · 650 bans

46%

Dragon Knight

395 picks · 515 bans

50%

Puck

392 picks · 857 bans

55%

Bane

375 picks · 250 bans

57%

Ember Spirit

337 picks · 621 bans

47%

Snapfire

335 picks · 163 bans

48%

Pangolier

318 picks · 540 bans

52%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)60% vs 64%

Hero pool strength50% IVY

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total54% IVY

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed33:21

Arcred.int 48%IVY 52%

The model gave 52% on IVY — the game was taken by Arcred.int in 41:18.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo