Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Quincy Crewloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Enchantresssignature
Wij · 7 games
Spirit Breakersignature
Hyko · 7 games
Banesignature
Wij · 6 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Berna · 5 games
Medusaoften banned
Parker · 5 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Hyko · 5 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Berna · 4 games
Crystal Maiden
Wij · 4 games
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
582 picks · 457 bans
Mars
427 picks · 651 bans
Dragon Knight
396 picks · 520 bans
Puck
390 picks · 859 bans
Bane
377 picks · 251 bans
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 625 bans
Snapfire
336 picks · 164 bans
Pangolier
322 picks · 544 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 71%
Hero pool strength55% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total51% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed3:18
Evil Geniuses 51%Quincy Crew 49%
The model gave 51% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Quincy Crew in 28:46.
Game 2prediction missed29:27
Evil Geniuses 51%Quincy Crew 49%
The model gave 51% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Quincy Crew in 46:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 51%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2