European Pro League Season 35 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rune Eaters
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 60 games
Jakirooften banned
monodrama · 54 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 47 games
Tinyoften banned
ani-san · 41 game
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 36 games
Dawnbreaker
Ankou · 34 games
Disruptorsignature
Htrd · 34 games
Tusk
ani-san · 32 games
LiXO eSports
Invokeroften banned
Rayx · 3 games
Jakirooften banned
Garbat1y · 3 games
Marci
aguwa · 3 games
Tusk
aguwa · 3 games
Bristleback
zenica · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
zenica · 2 games
Enigmaoften banned
zenica · 2 games
Kezoften banned
eva · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
668 picks · 828 bans
Tiny
580 picks · 595 bans
Warlock
474 picks · 323 bans
Tusk
473 picks · 417 bans
Shadow Demon
416 picks · 1085 bans
Ember Spirit
396 picks · 696 bans
Shadow Fiend
388 picks · 1002 bans
Mars
384 picks · 625 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 33%
Hero pool strength56% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:8
Rune Eaters 74%LiXO eSports 26%
The model gave 74% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 25:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiendyowaai
Gyrocoptereva
PuckEthereal
InvokerRayx
BristlebackAnkou
Brewmasterzenica
WarlockKidaro
Skywrath Mageaguwa
Ringmasterani-san
TuskGarbat1y
Game 2prediction correct34:16
Rune Eaters 75%LiXO eSports 25%
The model gave 75% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 27:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiendyowaai
Bristlebackzenica
HuskarEthereal
Clinkzeva
OmniknightAnkou
PuckRayx
Tuskani-san
WarlockGarbat1y
JakiroKidaro
Tinyaguwa
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 89%
Series resultRune Eaters 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2