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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
TSMwin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Wildcard Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Bane
Banesignature
DuBu · 17 games
76%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 12 games
83%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MoonMeander · 12 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bryle- · 10 games
60%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
MoonMeander · 10 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
bryle- · 10 games
70%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Timado · 9 games
89%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
DuBu · 9 games
78%

Wildcard Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfire
The Warden · 19 games
26%
Tiny
Tiny
iAnnihilate · 15 games
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
The Warden · 14 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Sunlight · 13 games
31%
Puck
Puckoften banned
iAnnihilate · 13 games
31%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Ark · 12 games
67%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
The Warden · 12 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Sunlight · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
581 picks · 458 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
427 picks · 653 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
397 picks · 522 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
390 picks · 858 bans
55%
Bane
Bane
377 picks · 255 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 626 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
336 picks · 162 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
322 picks · 547 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 57%
Hero pool strength62% TSM
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:16
TSM 56%Wildcard Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 28:29.
Game 2prediction correct45:22
TSM 56%Wildcard Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 34:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 56%
Series resultTSM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2