Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
RSGloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Banesignature
Hyde · 9 games
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 9 games
Marsoften banned
kpii · 9 games
Death Prophetsignature
kpii · 7 games
Medusasignature
23savage · 7 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 6 games
Grimstrokesignature
Q · 6 games
Linasignature
Mikoto · 6 games
RSG
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
578 picks · 458 bans
Mars
431 picks · 658 bans
Dragon Knight
401 picks · 524 bans
Puck
387 picks · 854 bans
Bane
382 picks · 261 bans
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 630 bans
Snapfire
335 picks · 161 bans
Pangolier
329 picks · 547 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 48%
Hero pool strength61% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct48:20
Talon Esports 51%RSG 49%
The model gave 51% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 38:47.
Game 2prediction missed8:36
Talon Esports 51%RSG 49%
The model gave 51% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by RSG in 29:46.
Game 3prediction correct
Talon Esports 51%RSG 49%
The model gave 51% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 51%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3