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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 2:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nigma Galaxy SEAloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Bane
Bane
ninjaboogie · 14 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Moon · 11 games
45%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
AhFu · 8 games
38%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
AhFu · 6 games
50%
Io
Iooften banned
AhFu · 6 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Moon · 6 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Moon · 6 games
33%
Lina
Linasignature
Moon · 6 games
67%

Nigma Galaxy SEA

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
577 picks · 463 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
431 picks · 663 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
405 picks · 528 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
388 picks · 854 bans
56%
Bane
Bane
384 picks · 261 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 632 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
335 picks · 163 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
330 picks · 553 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total56% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:45
Team SMG 44%Nigma Galaxy SEA 56%
The model gave 56% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 43:16.
Game 2prediction missed41:32
Team SMG 44%Nigma Galaxy SEA 56%
The model gave 56% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Team SMG in 37:08.
Game 3prediction missed48:20
Team SMG 44%Nigma Galaxy SEA 56%
The model gave 56% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Team SMG in 32:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 56%
Series resultTeam SMG 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3