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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Atlantisloss 1:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Summit Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Atlantis

No games played over 6 months.

Summit Gaming

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
TrazaM · 9 games
56%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Mercury · 6 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Nj · 5 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mercury · 4 games
25%
Lion
Lion
czy · 4 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nj · 4 games
25%
Rubick
Rubick
czy · 4 games
75%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Mercury · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
576 picks · 466 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
430 picks · 665 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
406 picks · 528 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
388 picks · 853 bans
56%
Bane
Bane
385 picks · 261 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 632 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
334 picks · 163 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
331 picks · 556 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Atlantis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Atlantis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:25
Atlantis 55%Summit Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Atlantis — the game was taken by Summit Gaming in 39:44.
Game 2prediction missed25:18
Atlantis 55%Summit Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Atlantis — the game was taken by Summit Gaming in 25:56.
Game 3prediction missed29:38
Atlantis 55%Summit Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Atlantis — the game was taken by Summit Gaming in 40:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteAtlantis · 55%
Series resultSummit Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3