Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
KBU.USloss 0:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LBLucky Birdwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KBU.US
No games played over 6 months.
Lucky Bird
Pucksignature
BlackSoul · 6 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rises · 4 games
Tiny
FrancisLee · 4 games
Queen of Painoften banned
BlackSoul · 3 games
Tusk
FrancisLee · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Rises · 2 games
Razoroften banned
Rises · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
576 picks · 464 bans
Mars
430 picks · 666 bans
Dragon Knight
406 picks · 528 bans
Puck
387 picks · 854 bans
Bane
386 picks · 261 bans
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 634 bans
Pangolier
333 picks · 555 bans
Snapfire
333 picks · 163 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 86%
Hero pool strength58% Lucky Bird
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Lucky Bird
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:16
KBU.US 42%Lucky Bird 58%
The model gave 58% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by Lucky Bird in 43:31.
Game 2prediction correct31:26
KBU.US 42%Lucky Bird 58%
The model gave 58% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by Lucky Bird in 42:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteLucky Bird · 58%
Series resultLucky Bird 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2