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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
5RATFORCESTAFFloss 1:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
nounswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

5RATFORCESTAFF

Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
albinozebra · 9 games
78%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
red2 · 7 games
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Lil_Nick · 6 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Giant · 6 games
83%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Giant · 5 games
80%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
dnm · 5 games
20%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Speeed · 5 games
80%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Lil_Nick · 5 games
100%

nouns

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Moo · 10 games
90%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Husky · 8 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
ZfreeK · 7 games
71%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Husky · 6 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Moo · 5 games
80%
Tiny
Tiny
Gunnar · 5 games
80%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
Husky · 5 games
40%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Husky · 4 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
574 picks · 465 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
431 picks · 666 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
406 picks · 526 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
387 picks · 851 bans
55%
Bane
Bane
385 picks · 261 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 635 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
332 picks · 555 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
332 picks · 163 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 71%
Hero pool strength52% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:15
5RATFORCESTAFF 43%nouns 57%
The model gave 57% on nouns — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 45:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death Prophet
Death ProphetSpeeed
50% · 89 games47% · 139 games
TimbersawGunnar
Timbersaw
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerdnm
44% · 121 game53% · 35 games
PudgeCostabile
Pudge
Kunkka
Kunkkared2
43% · 163 games58% · 211 games
BeastmasterMoo
Beastmaster
Warlock
Warlockalbinozebra
49% · 29 games58% · 84 games
ZeusZfreeK
Zeus
Tiny
TinyGiant
47% · 200 games53% · 133 games
Winter WyvernHusky
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct25:35
5RATFORCESTAFF 41%nouns 59%
The model gave 59% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 52:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
Kunkkared2
44% · 163 games51% · 11 games
Lone DruidGunnar
Lone Druid
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerdnm
48% · 104 games54% · 119 games
BloodseekerCostabile
Bloodseeker
Razor
RazorSpeeed
48% · 161 game54% · 268 games
PangolierMoo
Pangolier
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernalbinozebra
44% · 86 games57% · 91 game
ZeusZfreeK
Zeus
Tiny
TinyGiant
49% · 266 games48% · 291 game
SnapfireHusky
Snapfire
Game 3prediction correct6:39
5RATFORCESTAFF 43%nouns 57%
The model gave 57% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 31:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistdnm
48% · 42 games56% · 143 games
LifestealerCostabile
Lifestealer
Kunkka
Kunkkared2
45% · 183 games52% · 318 games
PangolierGunnar
Pangolier
Viper
ViperSpeeed
44% · 106 games55% · 85 games
EnigmaMoo
Enigma
Tiny
TinyGiant
48% · 295 games48% · 224 games
ClockwerkZfreeK
Clockwerk
Bane
Banealbinozebra
50% · 273 games53% · 129 games
Winter WyvernHusky
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 60%
Series resultnouns 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3