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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 24 games
75%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 23 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 19 games
84%
Io
Iosignature
Sneyking · 17 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 16 games
88%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Sneyking · 15 games
60%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Sneyking · 14 games
79%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 14 games
64%

Gaimin Gladiators

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 29 games
59%
Bane
Bane
tOfu · 22 games
59%
Io
Iosignature
Seleri · 21 game
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
BOOM · 19 games
95%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
tOfu · 19 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 18 games
61%
Mars
Marssignature
Ace · 18 games
61%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
tOfu · 17 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
572 picks · 464 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
431 picks · 669 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
408 picks · 525 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
386 picks · 262 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
383 picks · 853 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 635 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
332 picks · 557 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
332 picks · 162 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 53%
Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total56% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:10
Tundra Esports 56%Gaimin Gladiators 44%
The model gave 56% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 31:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerSkiter
50% · 106 games50% · 231 game
PuckBOOM
Puck
Death Prophet
Death Prophet33
56% · 97 games47% · 46 games
Bristlebackdyrachyo
Bristleback
Zeus
ZeusNine
53% · 67 games47% · 101 game
Night StalkerAce
Night Stalker
Tiny
TinySaksa
55% · 197 games42% · 162 games
DawnbreakertOfu
Dawnbreaker
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernSneyking
50% · 123 games53% · 50 games
Crystal MaidenSeleri
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct27:14
Tundra Esports 55%Gaimin Gladiators 45%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 32:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidSkiter
39% · 125 games53% · 91 game
Wraith Kingdyrachyo
Wraith King
Visage
Visage33
54% · 75 games53% · 200 games
PuckBOOM
Puck
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernNine
50% · 133 games48% · 83 games
BatriderAce
Batrider
Zeus
ZeusSneyking
55% · 59 games48% · 148 games
DawnbreakertOfu
Dawnbreaker
Tiny
TinySaksa
50% · 322 games54% · 192 games
BaneSeleri
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 56%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2