Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
EHOME
Pangolieroften banned
zeal · 16 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
shiro · 13 games
Rubick
pLAnet · 11 games
Bane
zzq · 10 games
Sand Kingsignature
zeal · 10 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Echo · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Echo · 8 games
Phoenix
pLAnet · 8 games
Vici Gaming
Grimstroke
Victoria · 13 games
Tinysignature
poyoyo · 10 games
Hoodwink
Yds · 9 games
Snapfire
Victoria · 9 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Xm · 9 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yang · 8 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Victoria · 8 games
Razoroften banned
Xm · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
572 picks · 463 bans
Mars
433 picks · 673 bans
Dragon Knight
410 picks · 529 bans
Bane
390 picks · 261 bans
Puck
381 picks · 852 bans
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 640 bans
Pangolier
335 picks · 559 bans
Snapfire
331 picks · 161 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 54%
Hero pool strength50% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total54% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:36
EHOME 46%Vici Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 43:45.
Game 2prediction missed
EHOME 46%Vici Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by EHOME.
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 54%
Series resultEHOME 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2