Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
LBZSwin 2:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Shenzhenloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LBZS
Tiny
CatYou · 11 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Shanks · 9 games
Hoodwink
CatYou · 8 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Shanks · 8 games
Leshracoften banned
Shanks · 7 games
Mirana
CatYou · 6 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Molasses · 6 games
Earth Spirit
CatYou · 5 games
Shenzhen
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
568 picks · 465 bans
Mars
434 picks · 673 bans
Dragon Knight
412 picks · 530 bans
Bane
392 picks · 264 bans
Puck
382 picks · 847 bans
Pangolier
338 picks · 560 bans
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 640 bans
Snapfire
330 picks · 161 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 54%
Hero pool strength57% Shenzhen
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% LBZS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:20
LBZS 52%Shenzhen 48%
The model gave 52% on LBZS — the game was taken by LBZS in 41:53.
Game 2prediction missed27:32
LBZS 52%Shenzhen 48%
The model gave 52% on LBZS — the game was taken by Shenzhen in 1:13:04.
Game 3prediction correct
LBZS 52%Shenzhen 48%
The model gave 52% on LBZS — the game was taken by LBZS.
Model check result
Model favoriteLBZS · 52%
Series resultLBZS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3