Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TNC Predator
Grimstrokesignature
Bombi · 13 games
Pangoliersignature
xiaoyu154 · 13 games
Tinysignature
YoungGodLevi · 13 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
xsilearn · 9 games
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 9 games
Sand Kingsignature
xiaoyu154 · 9 games
Death Prophetsignature
xiaoyu154 · 8 games
Enchantresssignature
Febby · 8 games
Made in Philippines
Dragon Knightsignature
Rupido · 8 games
Marssignature
JG · 8 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Ken · 8 games
Juggernautsignature
Ken · 6 games
Puckoften banned
JG · 6 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Teehee · 5 games
Bane
Teehee · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
Rupido · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
565 picks · 464 bans
Mars
437 picks · 671 bans
Dragon Knight
416 picks · 531 bans
Bane
394 picks · 266 bans
Puck
380 picks · 842 bans
Pangolier
341 picks · 565 bans
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 642 bans
Chaos Knight
328 picks · 656 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% TNC Predator
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Made in Philippines
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:20
TNC Predator 46%Made in Philippines 54%
The model gave 54% on Made in Philippines — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 43:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackYowe
WeaverKen
ViperBok
TinyJG
Warlockcml
PangolierRupido
49% · 43 games
EnchantressTeehee
Game 2prediction correct16:33
TNC Predator 47%Made in Philippines 53%
The model gave 53% on Made in Philippines — the game was taken by Made in Philippines in 33:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidYowe
Wraith KingKen
Death ProphetBok
Ember SpiritJG
Enchantresscml
TimbersawRupido
32% · 38 games
JakiroTeehee
Game 3prediction correct21:40
TNC Predator 45%Made in Philippines 55%
The model gave 55% on Made in Philippines — the game was taken by Made in Philippines in 43:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
EnigmaBok
Faceless VoidKen
LifestealerYowe
BatriderJG
Shadow Shamancml
KunkkaRupido
44% · 34 games
JakiroTeehee
Model check result
Model favoriteMade in Philippines · 63%
Series resultMade in Philippines 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3