Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Fusionloss 1:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
CDEC Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Fusion
No games played over 6 months.
CDEC Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
563 picks · 465 bans
Mars
438 picks · 669 bans
Dragon Knight
418 picks · 531 bans
Bane
395 picks · 267 bans
Puck
379 picks · 840 bans
Pangolier
341 picks · 565 bans
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 642 bans
Chaos Knight
328 picks · 656 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 71%
Hero pool strength50% Team Fusion
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% CDEC Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:10
Team Fusion 45%CDEC Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by CDEC Gaming in 42:45.
Game 2prediction correct15:44
Team Fusion 45%CDEC Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by CDEC Gaming in 42:05.
Game 3prediction correct29:16
Team Fusion 45%CDEC Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by CDEC Gaming in 30:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteCDEC Gaming · 55%
Series resultCDEC Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3