Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
5ManMidaswin 2:1series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Eternityloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
5ManMidas
No games played over 6 months.
Eternity
Chaos Knightoften banned
CarJua · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
P1 · 4 games
Jakiro
rayy · 4 games
Tiny
Moonlight · 4 games
Doomoften banned
Moonlight · 3 games
Earth Spirit
Moonlight · 3 games
Lion
Moonlight · 3 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Cys · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
567 picks · 463 bans
Mars
435 picks · 671 bans
Dragon Knight
417 picks · 529 bans
Bane
392 picks · 268 bans
Puck
376 picks · 839 bans
Pangolier
343 picks · 565 bans
Ember Spirit
335 picks · 640 bans
Chaos Knight
329 picks · 658 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% 5ManMidas
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total57% 5ManMidas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed45:22
5ManMidas 57%Eternity 43%
The model gave 57% on 5ManMidas — the game was taken by Eternity in 51:35.
Game 2prediction missed44:40
5ManMidas 57%Eternity 43%
The model gave 57% on 5ManMidas — the game was taken by Eternity in 39:51.
Game 3prediction missed57:49
5ManMidas 57%Eternity 43%
The model gave 57% on 5ManMidas — the game was taken by Eternity in 1:00:40.
Model check result
Model favorite5ManMidas · 57%
Series result5ManMidas 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3