Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Arkosh Gamingloss 1:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
LBLucky Birdwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Arkosh Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Lucky Bird
Puckoften banned
BlackSoul · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
BlackSoul · 3 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rises · 3 games
Tusk
FrancisLee · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Rises · 2 games
Skywrath Mage
FrancisLee · 2 games
Tiny
FrancisLee · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
564 picks · 464 bans
Mars
437 picks · 673 bans
Dragon Knight
417 picks · 529 bans
Bane
393 picks · 268 bans
Puck
372 picks · 839 bans
Pangolier
343 picks · 565 bans
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 639 bans
Chaos Knight
329 picks · 659 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 85%
Hero pool strength57% Lucky Bird
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Lucky Bird
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:50
Arkosh Gaming 40%Lucky Bird 60%
The model gave 60% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by Lucky Bird in 27:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RubickDendi
Templar AssassinRises
60% · 49 games
PuckBlackSoul
71% · 10 games
MarciFrancisLee
Game 2prediction missed31:36
Arkosh Gaming 39%Lucky Bird 61%
The model gave 61% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 43:43.
Game 3prediction correct15:37
Arkosh Gaming 39%Lucky Bird 61%
The model gave 61% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by Lucky Bird in 34:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteLucky Bird · 61%
Series resultLucky Bird 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3