Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Mind Gamesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Banesignature
Miposhka · 17 games
Rubicksignature
Mira · 11 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Mira · 10 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Yatoro · 10 games
Sand Kingsignature
Collapse · 10 games
Storm Spiritsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 10 games
Marssignature
Collapse · 9 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Yatoro · 9 games
Mind Games
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
563 picks · 462 bans
Mars
438 picks · 674 bans
Dragon Knight
418 picks · 529 bans
Bane
393 picks · 268 bans
Puck
368 picks · 838 bans
Pangolier
345 picks · 564 bans
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 638 bans
Chaos Knight
329 picks · 658 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 33%
Hero pool strength60% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total64% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:13
Team Spirit 64%Mind Games 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 27:34.
Game 2prediction correct47:20
Team Spirit 64%Mind Games 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 41:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 64%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2