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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Gorillaz-Pridewin 2:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
NoPing VPNloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gorillaz-Pride

Puck
Pucksignature
TaO · 6 games
67%
Bane
Bane
Yadomi · 5 games
60%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
TaO · 5 games
20%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Genek · 5 games
60%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
TaO · 5 games
40%
Tiny
Tiny
Zxca · 5 games
60%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
TaO · 5 games
40%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
NaoG · 4 games
25%

NoPing VPN

Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Oscar · 16 games
69%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Michael · 15 games
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Accel · 15 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Accel · 14 games
64%
Mirana
Mirana
Michael · 14 games
57%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Lumière · 14 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Accel · 13 games
23%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Lumière · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
562 picks · 464 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
436 picks · 674 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
417 picks · 529 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
393 picks · 269 bans
58%
Puck
Puck
368 picks · 835 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
345 picks · 563 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 637 bans
47%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
329 picks · 659 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 29%
Hero pool strength54% NoPing VPN
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% NoPing VPN
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:21
Gorillaz-Pride 49%NoPing VPN 51%
The model gave 51% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by Gorillaz-Pride in 32:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaNaoG
56% · 303 games51% · 198 games
Templar AssassinMandy
Templar Assassin
Mars
MarsTaO
49% · 626 games39% · 206 games
Queen of PainLeostyle
Queen of Pain
Marci
MarciYadomi
49% · 57 games46% · 249 games
Dragon KnightCys
Dragon Knight
Enchantress
EnchantressJimmyCoff666
58% · 171 game48% · 247 games
HoodwinkMoOz
Hoodwink
48% · 257 games
SnapfireKJ
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct24:46
Gorillaz-Pride 46%NoPing VPN 54%
The model gave 54% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 36:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinNaoG
58% · 210 games45% · 37 games
Nature's ProphetMandy
Nature's Prophet
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightTaO
50% · 160 games50% · 227 games
MarsLeostyle
Mars
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerJimmyCoff666
40% · 104 games51% · 65 games
BatriderCys
Batrider
Marci
MarciYadomi
50% · 85 games55% · 147 games
Monkey KingMoOz
Monkey King
50% · 83 games
Treant ProtectorKJ
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction missed57:24
Gorillaz-Pride 45%NoPing VPN 55%
The model gave 55% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by Gorillaz-Pride in 37:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaNaoG
51% · 286 games46% · 43 games
Nature's ProphetMandy
Nature's Prophet
Leshrac
LeshracTaO
45% · 128 games41% · 105 games
TimbersawCys
Timbersaw
Marci
MarciYadomi
53% · 111 games50% · 278 games
MarsLeostyle
Mars
Clockwerk
ClockwerkJimmyCoff666
49% · 201 game58% · 218 games
TinyMoOz
Tiny
55% · 82 games
Winter WyvernKJ
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteNoPing VPN · 56%
Series resultGorillaz-Pride 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3