Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Royal Never Give Uploss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Bane
y` · 13 games
Kunkkaoften banned
NothingToSay · 12 games
Tidehuntersignature
y` · 12 games
Grimstrokesignature
y` · 10 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Ame · 10 games
Doomsignature
Faith_bian · 9 games
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 9 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 9 games
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
558 picks · 464 bans
Mars
435 picks · 678 bans
Dragon Knight
418 picks · 529 bans
Bane
395 picks · 269 bans
Puck
367 picks · 833 bans
Pangolier
346 picks · 563 bans
Ember Spirit
333 picks · 638 bans
Chaos Knight
329 picks · 658 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 57%
Hero pool strength60% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head5 – 3
Model total52% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:21
LGD Gaming 52%Royal Never Give Up 48%
The model gave 52% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 37:38.
Game 2prediction correct29:23
LGD Gaming 52%Royal Never Give Up 48%
The model gave 52% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 41:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 52%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2