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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
X3loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 18 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ainkrad · 18 games
56%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Kiritych · 16 games
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
VANSKOR · 15 games
40%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
VANSKOR · 14 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Kiritych · 14 games
43%
Bane
Banesignature
VANSKOR · 12 games
75%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Heaven · 12 games
67%

X3

Bane
Bane
antoha · 21 game
48%
Puck
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 15 games
53%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
NattyNarwhal · 12 games
67%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
smN · 12 games
33%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
smN · 12 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Mastery · 10 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Shergarat · 9 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
velheor · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
558 picks · 464 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
435 picks · 678 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
418 picks · 529 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
395 picks · 269 bans
58%
Puck
Puck
367 picks · 833 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
346 picks · 563 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
333 picks · 638 bans
47%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
329 picks · 658 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% X3
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total55% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:12
Nemiga Gaming 52%X3 48%
The model gave 52% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 38:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeKiritych
51% · 234 games47% · 91 game
Phantom Lancernesfeer
Phantom Lancer
Underlord
UnderlordCorrupted
43% · 69 games56% · 166 games
BeastmasterShergarat
Beastmaster
Puck
PuckMalr1ne
44% · 244 games51% · 304 games
TinyNattyNarwhal
Tiny
Monkey King
Monkey KingHellscream
49% · 285 games53% · 34 games
Clinkzvelheor
Clinkz
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernso bad
46% · 110 games55% · 347 games
BanesmN
Bane
Game 2prediction correct24:14
Nemiga Gaming 55%X3 45%
The model gave 55% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 33:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackKiritych
46% · 45 games54% · 121 game
Weavernesfeer
Weaver
Tidehunter
TidehunterCorrupted
48% · 119 games39% · 20 games
Outworld DestroyerNattyNarwhal
Outworld Destroyer
Tusk
TuskMalr1ne
47% · 80 games60% · 31 game
EnigmaShergarat
Enigma
Zeus
ZeusHellscream
46% · 77 games52% · 157 games
Tinyvelheor
Tiny
Warlock
Warlockso bad
51% · 59 games51% · 51 game
MarcismN
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 55%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2